One Nation’s surge — A view from Queensland

Looking around from Queensland right now, the national political map feels like it’s being redrawn in real time, and the big story is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. 

Since Labor’s win in May 2025, One Nation’s primary vote has climbed from about 6–7% to regularly sitting in the mid-to-high 20s, with some recent polls indicatingit’s been level with or ahead of Labor on first preferences. Pollsters have it somewhere between 24% and 31% depending on the week, with the Coalition (Liberals and Nationals) slumped to historic lows in the high teens or low 20s. Modelling from outfits like DemosAU has even floated scenarios where One Nation could land 50–60-plus lower house seats if an election were held today — not enough for majority government on its own, but enough to completely scramble the old two-party order. 

The surge isn’t coming out of nowhere. A big chunk of it is former Coalition voters peeling away — people who feel the Liberals have lost their way on immigration numbers, housing pressure, cost-of-living and a general sense that the major parties talk past ordinary concerns. Immigration and its links to housing affordability keep ranking high, even if it’s not the only driver. One Nation has also picked up ground in regional and outer-suburban seats, and it’s no longer just the older, male, rural base it used to be known for. Hanson’s profile has risen sharply; at times she’s polled competitively as preferred prime minister. 

That said, primary vote leads don’t automatically translate into seats under preferential voting. Labor has mostly held the edge on two-candidate or two-party preferred measures in recent surveys, and the Coalition’s collapse has been dramatic enough that some of those votes could yet flow back or fragment further. The next federal election isn’t due until 2028, so there’s still a long stretch for things to settle, harden or reverse. 

How it looks in Queensland 

Here in Queensland the picture is similar but not identical. One Nation has risen strongly — state polls have put it about 24%, sometimes drawing level with Labor on primary vote and occasionally leading federally in the state. That’s a serious number in Hanson’s home state, with federal modelling suggesting it could take a large slice of Queensland seats. 

Yet the Liberal National Party government under David Crisafulli is still clearly in front. Recent state polling has the LNP primary in the low-to-mid 30s, Labor down around 25%, and a two-party preferred lead for the government in the high 50s. Crisafulli himself leads comfortably as preferred premier. Cost-of-living, housing and crime remain the big issues for Queenslanders. While voters are critical of performance on some of those, the overall judgment so far is that the LNP government has been competent enough to hold its position. One Nation is taking some of the protest and conservative vote, but it hasn’t yet displaced the LNP as the dominant force on the right in state politics. 

From a Queensland perspective, that contrast is interesting. Nationally, the Coalition looks fractured and diminished; in Queensland the LNP still looks like a functioning government that most voters prefer to the alternative. Whether that holds if federal One Nation momentum keeps building or whether it starts bleeding more into state contests, is one of the open questions. 

A personal take 

Sitting here watching it, the rise of One Nation feels like the most significant disruption to the Australian party system in a generation. The old Liberal–Labor contest is under real pressure for the first time in decades. Some of the energy is genuine frustration with high migration, housing shortages and the sense that both major parties have become too similar or too remote. Some of it is the usual protest vote that finds a new home when the main conservative party is weak. 

Whether it proves durable is another matter. Parties that surge on dissatisfaction can plateau or fade once scrutiny intensifies or if the major parties adapt. Labor has already adjusted some of its messaging and budget settings with an eye to the threat. The Liberals under Angus Taylor, are trying to claw background by moving right on certain issues. And Queensland’s LNP experience suggests that a centre-right party that is seen to be delivering competent government can still hold its base even while One Nation is strong. 

For now, though, the landscape is more fluid and three-cornered than it has been for a long time. From Queensland it looks like One Nation’s rise is very real and nationally significant — but the state Liberal National government is still getting credit for steady performance and that matters. The next couple of years will tell us whether this is a lasting realignment or a dramatic but temporary protest.