Can the Brisbane NRL duo beat the adversity?

By Chase Christensen 

Credit: NRL.com 

The top eight positions on the NRL ladder are as far from undecided as can be, with 14 teams still in contention to play finals football in 2025. 

The Broncos and Dolphins are both heavily in the mix to play in the postseason. There are four rounds to go and the Broncos are sixth whilst the Dolphins are eighth, so both teams can comfortably make the eight. A large obstacle that both teams must deal with is an injury crisis. 

Brisbane is suffering one of the most absurd injury crises in years, as Selwyn Cobbo, Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam all suffered major injuries in their Round 23 clash against the Storm. Reynolds and Mam both injured their hamstrings in the same play. It is unheard of for a halves pairing to injure themselves in the same play. A Xavier Coates intercept not happening would have reversed the injuries and possibly even changed the result of the match to a Broncos win. The season was completely flipped after those injuries. They were at $10 odds to win the competition before the match and have now blown out to $23 odds following the battle in Melbourne (per Sportsbet). 

Michael Maguire’s men have one of the easier runs home, as they play the Dolphins, Knights, Cowboys and Storm. The Knights and Cowboys likely must be defeated if they want to have a chance at making the finals. A win against the Phins will set them up well to comfortably stroll into September. For optimistic Broncos fans, the top four is still mathematically possible. Given that Penrith are three points ahead in fourth position, Brisbane would need to win out, which is more possible than many might think. Their biggest challenge will be Melbourne in the final round of the season, which, on paper, seems like a low winning chance — but Melbourne may rest some of their key players if they’re guaranteed a top-two ladder finish. If the Broncos go undefeated in the final four rounds, they’d just need a struggling Warriors team and Penrith to lose a couple of games at least. 

On the other hand, the Dolphins are hanging onto the top eight by a hair. Herbie Farnworth’s hamstring injury is the story of their season. If it leads to the Dolphins missing out on their first-ever finals berth, it would be devastating for fans, players and Kristian Woolf, who’s had a great opening season as head coach. From not winning in their first month of the season to being inside the top eight, the side has really turned their season around. But a rude awakening against the Roosters in Round 23 has got critics questioning their credentials as a finals team. 

The Dolphins’ final four fixtures are not as easy as their local rivals (the Broncos), but they are not a death run. They face the Broncos, Sea Eagles, Titans and Raiders. The Raiders will be their hardest battle by far, but an obviously depleted Brisbane team, a disappointing Manly side and the last-placed Titans are all winnable games. 

Both the Broncos and Dolphins remain firmly in the finals hunt, but injuries loom large. Their closing rounds will decide everything, with resilience, momentum and a touch of luck likely determining who survives to play September football in 2025.